- The Fold Line Report
- Pages
- Psycho Breaks
Open profits and emotional calmness breeds complacency.
Complacency reinforces beliefs in one's position (trader commitment).
Mounting losses and anxiety erode one’s conviction (position rejection).
The Cusp Catastrophe Fold Line calculates price levels where a sudden, catastrophic "belief collapse" may happen — as otherwise ostensibly disciplined traders dramatically lose their composure — abruptly freaking-out and selling even after prolonged discipline.
The Fold Line Report estimates where "foreseeable conviction meltdowns" and "chaotic trading decisions" may intersect and cascade to the point of 'surprise'.
The Fold Line Report offers insight into these "psycho breaks".
When profits and optimism are high, traders feel "conviction in their strategy".
When low, Cusp Catastrophe Theory shows us that they abandon both their discipline and their strategies nearly simultaneously.
When others seem completely confused — The Fold Line Report uncovers alpha around anticipated moments of surprise.
Surprise emerges from understandable, modellable dynamics.
Our tacit knowledge with our own process plus decades of empirical evidence show such moments can be both anticipated and bet on.